Crossroads of risk: The climate change megatrend

Children, women, older persons and persons with disabilities are disproportionately affected by climate change.

The climate change megatrend

Achieving inclusive and sustainable development will become even more challenging due the impacts of climate change across Asia and the Pacific. Even under the 1.5-degree Celsius global warming scenario, which according to projections is likely to be surpassed, 85 per cent of the Asia-Pacific region’s population is expected to be exposed to multi-hazard risks associated with climate change.

Many existing hotspots of climate-related multi-hazards are forecast to expand or intensify as new hotspots emerge. People residing in these hotspots, often already poor with limited access to infrastructure, will be exposed to more frequent and intense sudden-onset natural disasters. They will also be first in line to be affected by slow-onset climate change events, such as sea level rise, temperature change, and the impacts of adaptation and mitigation policies to tackle climate change.

Climate change a major driver of poverty, inequality across the region

Climate change and rising socioeconomic inequalities are inextricably linked, with severe negative effects on the lives and livelihoods of marginalized people in vulnerable situations who lack the capacity and resources to cope with complex shocks related to health, income, food security and displacement.

Children, women, older persons and persons with disabilities are disproportionately affected by climate change, implying the need for adaptation and mitigation measures that address underlying inequalities faced by people in vulnerable situations.

Exposure to cyclones and storms in Vanuatu (2016-2019)

Source: ESCAP estimates based on Vanuatu National Sustainable Development Plan Baseline Survey (2019) shared by Vanuatu Bureau of Statistics covering 4,509 households.
Note: This binary regression tree is estimated using Classification and Regression Tree Analysis which aims to capture the intersectionality of circumstances that lead to differential outcomes within population groups in a given location. The model disaggregates exposure to cyclones and storms using the following circumstances: household expenditure, sex of household head, highest level of education in the household, and location of residence. The group with the lowest access rate is referred to as furthest behind. The group with the highest access rate is referred to as furthest ahead. Other groups have access rates in between.

New framework to integrate social protection and climate change policies

Climate change-induced risks in Asia and the Pacific are expected to increase, while at the same time coverage by at least one social protection benefit is below 50 per cent in more than half of Asia-Pacific countries.

Integrating social protection into environmental policies is essential

Integrating social protection into policies addressing environmental impacts and transition challenges is essential for achieving cumulative and transformative outcomes. Effective policy packages involve inclusive social dialogue, linking labour market and industrial policies with social protection, and developing national just-transition strategies

Interplay between climate change events, policies and social protection

Source: ESCAP elaboration.